MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary September 4, 2025

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

Domestic

This week, we’re seeing dairy markets remain unsettled as heavy milk supplies run up against steady export demand. Butter futures are running 23¢ higher just a month out, suggesting values won’t fall below $2, while cheese keeps bouncing between $1.65 support and $1.85 resistance. Spot trade reflected the tug-of-war, with blocks down 3.5¢ to $1.73, barrels off 3.75¢ to $1.7425, NDM slipping to $1.2275, and butter inching up to $2.015. Milk stays long in much of the country, especially the Midwest, where spot loads fell to 25¢ under Class III after trading at premiums just a week ago. Still, exports offered support in July, with cheese shipments up 29% year-over-year and butter up more than threefold. Milk powder was the outlier, sliding 16% from last year.

Exports

U.S. butter exports soared to new heights in July, reaching 27 million pounds of butterfat, nearly two and a half times more than a year ago. Canada continued to lead as the biggest customer, but the spotlight shifted to Australia, Denmark, and the Netherlands, where demand surged to historic levels. The Dutch alone purchased more in a single month than they had over the past ten years combined. With U.S. butter priced well below global competitors, more buyers are testing American style products, which could encourage domestic producers to expand output of higher fat, unsalted varieties favored overseas. Cheese and whey followed the same strong trend. Cheese shipments totaled 111.2 million pounds in July, the second-largest monthly tally on record, pushing year-to-date exports more than 13% ahead of last year’s pace. Whey powder exports climbed to nearly 35 million pounds, up more than one-fifth from last summer. Milk powder, by contrast, lagged behind: July volumes fell 17% from a year earlier as U.S. product struggled to compete internationally despite the weaker dollar.

Dairy Cow Culling

Because of old age, reproduction and disease are some of the reasons leading up to dairy cow culling. USDA reported 225,800 dairy cows were marketed for beef in July, an increase from June but almost unchanged from a year earlier. Average daily slaughter held steady at 8,700 head, matching last July. Through the first seven months of 2025, culling totals about 1.5 million head, down 113,000 from the same stretch in 2024 and the lowest start to a year since 2008. The national herd was estimated at 9.485 million cows in July, with removals equal to 2.4% of that total.

Domestic dairy markets remained volatile as abundant milk supplies pressured prices despite supportive export demand, with butter futures firming and cheese continuing to trade within a narrow range. Spot prices softened for most products except butter, while Midwest milk discounts widened as supplies stayed long. Export activity strengthened in July, led by record setting U.S. butter shipments and robust gains in cheese and whey, though milk powder exports continued to lag. Dairy cow culling ticked up in July but remained low for the year overall, contributing to a national herd of 9.485 million cows with removals totaling just 2.4% of the herd.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, USDEC and USDA.