MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary August 21, 2025

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

Domestic

Here’s what we’re seeing in dairy this week: butter prices eased to $2.50 per pound, slipping slightly from the previous week and holding close to where they were a month ago. Cheese showed more strength, with Cheddar blocks climbing to $1.74 per pound, up 3.3 cents on the week and about 4 cents higher than mid-July.

Whey prices inched up to 58.2 cents per pound, gaining a little both week over week and month over month. Nonfat dry milk held steady at $1.29 per pound, barely moving in recent weeks. Overall, the market looks stable heading into late summer, with cheese standing out as the main source of momentum.

Exports

U.S. milk production is on the rise, climbing 3.4% from last year — the strongest gain in four years. The increase stems from both a larger national herd, boosted by an additional 159,000 cows, and stronger yields per animal. Growth has been especially notable in Kansas, Texas, and South Dakota, where herd expansion is driving output.

Rising production is meeting a growing global appetite for U.S. dairy. Exports of milk solids in June were up 15%, bringing total shipments this year to $4.72 billion in value. Competitive pricing and steady supply are making American cheese and other dairy products attractive to overseas buyers, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council.

On the farm, productivity continues to improve. Cows produced an average of 2,081 pounds of milk in July, 36 pounds more than the same month last year. Investments in efficiency and infrastructure suggest the industry is building a strong foundation for continued growth.

Bird Flu Outbreak Costs California Dairies

California dairy producers have collected more than $230 million in federal relief to offset milk production losses tied to the H5N1 bird flu outbreak, and that figure is likely to climb as additional claims are processed. Since August 2024, the virus has spread through over three-quarters of the state’s roughly 1,000 dairies, leaving cows sick and production sharply reduced.

Industry representatives say the aid has been critical to keeping operations running and workers employed during the crisis. Anja Raudabaugh, chief executive of Western United Dairies, said federal assistance has been the only way many farms could withstand the production hit until a vaccine becomes available. Farmers report that the disease not only reduced milk yields but also caused reproductive problems, udder damage, and cow deaths — with some Central Valley herds losing 10–15% of their animals last fall during the height of the outbreak.

Summary

Butter and nonfat dry milk prices remained steady while cheese and whey saw modest gains, keeping the domestic dairy market relatively stable. U.S. milk production rose 3.4% from last year thanks to a larger herd and stronger yields, helping fuel a 15% jump in dairy export volumes. Overseas demand for competitively priced American dairy products continues to strengthen, supported by improvements in farm productivity. In California, dairies have received over $230 million in federal relief as the H5N1 bird flu outbreak severely reduced production and caused significant herd losses.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, USDEC and USDA.