MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary April 23, 2026

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

U.S. milk production continues to expand at a moderate pace, driven primarily by significant herd growth rather than gains in productivity. Cow numbers have reached multi-decade highs, with much of the expansion concentrated in states like Kansas and Texas, creating ample milk supply and occasional processing constraints. At the same time, the industry is undergoing a structural shift: fluid milk consumption continues to decline, while demand for higher-value dairy products, particularly those tied to protein such as cheese, whey, and yogurt, is growing. This shift in product mix is tightening availability of certain components, even in an environment of overall milk surplus.

Globally, demand trends are mixed but improving, with China showing renewed interest in dairy imports, especially cheese and high-protein ingredients, while U.S. exports remain strong, led by record cheese and butterfat shipments. Pricing has improved modestly, supported by stronger Class IV values, though markets remain volatile and heavily dependent on export competitiveness. At the same time, economic pressures like rising energy costs and the growing use of GLP-1 drugs are reshaping consumer behavior, dampening demand for some traditional dairy products while boosting interest in protein-focused options.

WHAT MRV SEES:

The key drivers for May 2026’s increase are stronger NFDM values, which are more than offsetting the recent dip in butter prices. While butter has moved lower month over month, the overall class IV price is still trending higher because of gains on the skim side. Since fluid milk pricing is tied to these class values, that upward pressure is flowing through to the class I price. In short, the increase is being driven by stronger skim values. As for why these prices saw an increase, NFDM prices increased because more skim solids are being diverted into higher value products which tighten supply available for powder. Exports also helped support cheese prices. MRV projects June prices to be relatively flat.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, USDEC, FRED and USDA.