MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary September 25, 2024

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

As of September 2024, the dairy industry is seeing significant developments in both production forecasts and pricing trends. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its milk production outlook, reducing forecasts due to a smaller dairy herd and lower per-cow output. Milk production has declined slightly in recent months, leading to a revision of total output down by 0.4 billion pounds for the year​(dairyreporter.com)​(USDA).

However, wholesale dairy prices have risen, particularly for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk, due to tighter supplies and stronger demand. The USDA raised its price forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with the all-milk price expected to reach $22.30 per hundredweight in 2024 and $22.75 per hundredweight in 2025​(dairyreporter.com)​(dairyreporter.com).

Lower feed costs, driven by strong corn and soybean yields, are providing relief to dairy farmers, improving their margins. These favorable conditions are expected to encourage farmers to expand their herds, though tight heifer supplies might limit growth​(dairyreporter.com).

Overall, dairy producers are benefiting from higher milk prices and lower feed expenses, but the industry is closely watching inventory levels and the potential for further price shifts.

On a milk solids equivalent basis, US dairy exports climbed 9.6% YoY, which has been the biggest month of growth in a year and a half in July.

USDEC

MRV Dairy Solutions projects November prices to see a small increase due to higher demand during seasonal trends before tapering off to end the year.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, Daily Dairy Report, USDEC, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, Dairy Reporter and USDA