MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary June 22, 2026

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

The dairy market moved lower this month, with the Class I mover down approximately 3.8% from last month. This should translate into lower base costs across many fluid dairy items, particularly standard milk products. The decline was mainly driven by weaker dairy commodity inputs, with nonfat dry milk down about 4.5% and butter slightly lower, down about 0.6% from last month. Cheese was also lower, down about 4.0%, which reflects broader weakness in the dairy complex, although cheese is more directly tied to Class III pricing than to Class I fluid milk pricing.

From a market perspective, this appears to be more of a correction in dairy commodities than a major demand-driven event. Summer fluid milk demand is typically softer, and some milk that would normally move into bottling can shift into manufacturing channels, adding pressure to the skim side of the market. At the same time, Class II products are influenced by both skim and butterfat values, so softer skim-related inputs can reduce costs across items such as yogurt, sour cream, and other soft dairy products. However, because butterfat remains relatively supported, cream-heavy items such as cream and half-and-half may see less downside than standard fluid milk.

WHAT MRV SEES:

Looking ahead over the next three months, MRV would characterize the market as generally range-bound with a modest upside bias, rather than clearly lower. Milk supply appears adequate, and weaker cheese and nonfat dry milk values should help limit major upside pressure. However, butterfat remains relatively supported, and summer heat can tighten regional milk availability, which could keep cream-heavy items more sensitive than standard fluid milk. Based on current indications, near-term dairy costs may remain stable to modestly higher before showing some potential easing later in the year, assuming dairy commodities do not rebound sharply.

This information cited by Global Dairy Services, Inc. is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that Global Dairy Services, Inc. does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, USDEC, FRED and USDA.