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MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary November 6, 2022

Check in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

Domestic

Currently, MRV forecasts most class 1 products to see a slight increase in price, almost flat. Class 2 appears to follow a similar trend with a small increase for items like cream and buttermilk. We do see this increase, as of now, being larger than class 1. (These forecasts were done on 11/2/22.) NFDM prices have been relatively level while butter has dropped significantly (WoW), aligning the butter price with what we saw at the beginning of October. Block and barrel cheese are showing to be significantly higher (MoM), +8 and +10 cents respectively.

Although milk production has increased 1.5% in September, butter production fell 1.4% in September (YoY). New milk from dairy processors continues to be routed to class 3 at the expense of class 4. This is partially due to cheese exports remaining strong (+5.1% over September 2021). This also resulted in dry whey’s production increasing as well (+5.3% YoY).

Exports

Dairy exports in the US remained strong once again with total value being up 25% vs 2021 same period (January-September). For a milk solids equivalent basis, exports volume rose 7% back in September as well. The export leaders were cheese, lactose, butter, and whey.

Farm Life

Wellacrest Farms, the largest dairy in New Jersey, has been rebuilt after a terrifying blow from Hurricane Ida which leveled it just a year ago. Wellacrest Farms had been producing with the help of generators, but as development finishes, this should bring some small relief in the east.

Prototheca bovis is a yeast-like microalgae that has been around since the ‘50’s which has recently resurfaced in the last five years. This causes mastitis and is highly contagious from cow to cow. For now, it is unknown how things will shake out, but there have been hygiene practices and milking procedures which have been provided to help reduce infectivity rate amongst cows. We could see these practices and procedures widespread in the future if there is a large breakout.

Statistical data referenced here gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary DataDairy HerdUSDECCME, Daily Dairy Report, and USDA.

 

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

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