MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary January 16, 2024

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

Domestic

Domestically, commodities are relatively neutral MoM with some slight exceptions. While dry whey and NDM barely moved at a slight decrease of roughly one penny and a quarter of a penny respectively, butter moved up slightly at about 3 cents (MoM). However, its sales were almost cut in half in that same time period. Block and barrel cheese saw the biggest change over the last month with a decrease of  about 12 cents for block and a decrease of 9 cents for barrel. Sales for block increased during this time while barrel’s sales saw a decrease. According to the CME, butter futures show a small decrease for February and March before steadily rising again in April this year. While class III shows a slight increase in February before more steeply rising in April.

Report from Daily Dairy Report

Fluid Milk and Cheese

In October 2023, fluid milk sales rose 0.9% versus October of 2022. However, 2023’s year-to-date totals (January ‘23 – October ‘23) lagged behind the same period in 2022 by 1.6%. prior to October ’23, fluid milk sales were down on (YoY) every month with the exception of May.

Although fluid milk sales are seemingly glum, cheese demand and production are continuing on an upward path. According to USDA’s Dairy: World Markets and Trade report, consumption of cheese globally is forecasted to reach an all-time high this year (2024). That is up about 5.7% over 2019 and 1.2% over last year’s levels. However, global cheese production is growing faster than its demand. And domestically, USDA projects US cheese production will be 9.8% higher than 2019’s levels, which also outpaces current growth of domestic consumption, which is said to rise 8.3%. In November, US cheesemakers made a 0.7% increase compared to same month last year which notes the second consecutive month of increases and an all-time high record production for the month.

Report fromUSDEC

Exports

In MSE terms, US dairy exports dropped 8.1% year-over-year in November and 7.4% year-to-date which put the overall value down 16% (YTD). Exports are still lagging behind the highs that were 2022 for both volume and value of exports.

Summary

MRV projects class 1 items to move down a few cents for February’s price change given the current market. Fluid milk sales, although being up in October ’23 were down overall last year by 1.6% compared to prior year levels. This is not the case for cheese production and demand however, with consumption expecting to increase 8.3% this year and production projecting to increase 9.8%. Exports are still in a downward trend with total value being down 16% YTD.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, Daily Dairy Report, USDEC, CME Group, and USDA.