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MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary as of April 6, 2022

Check in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest!

Domestically, NASS volumes are comparable to last year’s however, prices are much higher and continuing to rise. With butter increasing $0.05, barrel cheese hiking up $0.078, and NFDM with the smallest increase at $0.015 (WoW), the only drop was in dry whey with a decrease of a measly $0.009.

With cheese popularity continually increasing so does its production, with production being up nearly 6.5% (YoY). However, butter production is still slower than last year, and even more so when compared to 2020. This could be a tell-tale sign of butter shortages for the 3rd and/or 4th quarter of 2022.

CME prices for dry whey have dropped since its peak in February, this drop will significantly impact the price of Class 3, with Class 3 milk dropping about $0.06 for every $0.01 dry whey will drop.

Milk powder is also declining in its output with a drop of about 7% (YoY). The drop in milk powder and the slow butter production has resulted in the highest Class 4 price recorded($24.82/cwt)! This is 75% higher than last year’s price!

Overall, US Exports volume grew 1.2% while its value grew 23% in February ’22 versus February last year. US butter and cheese exports grew with cheese exports being the largest February exports on record as it hits its eighth consecutive month of growth, increasing 9% against same period last year. This has led to the US gaining share against major competitors, EU and New Zealand. With global milk production still slowing, feed costs still on the rise, and Russia/Ukraine, this is making a very unstable environment for EU milk collections. We had contracting exports in NFDM and SMP to the top two milk powder markets, Mexico (-4.5%) and Southeast Asia (-11.5%).

Statistical data referenced here gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, Daily Dairy Report, and USDA.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

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